Projection bias

The in-group had access to a resource. So did the out-group. The perception was that giving to one required taking from the other.

Projection bias is the tendency to overestimate how much one's future self will share one's current preferences, thoughts, and values.

What it means and how it works

The bias stems from an empathy gap between present and future selves: current visceral states (e.g., hunger, stress, excitement) anchor judgments, and the mental simulation required to adjust for future states is insufficient or inaccurate.

Projection bias occurs when individuals use their present mental or emotional state as a reference point for predicting future preferences. Because it is difficult to simulate how one will feel under different circumstances, people assume that their current likes, dislikes, hunger, mood, or values will persist unchanged. This leads to predictions that are overly similar to the present state, resulting in choices that may not align with actual future desires.

Why it matters

Recognizing projection bias helps individuals and designers anticipate mismatches between present impulses and future well‑being, improving decisions in domains such as finance, health, consumption, and policy.

The verified research on this pattern supports the following:

• Projection bias is the tendency to overestimate how much one's future self will share one's current preferences, thoughts, and values.
• Projection bias can lead to suboptimal decisions, such as overpurchasing items when currently hungry or overestimating future desire for goods.

Common misunderstandings

Misunderstanding 1: Projection bias is merely forgetfulness about future preferences.

Misunderstanding 2: It only occurs in negative states like hunger or sadness.