When someone says things will get worse before they get better, it sounds wise. It is also unfalsifiable — which makes it worth examining.
The tendency to interpret worsening conditions as a sign that an eventual improvement is imminent, leading one to persist with ineffective or harmful actions.
A Scene Worth Recognising
A product team reviews the features that made their last three launches successful and sets out to replicate every pattern they find. The review is thorough — but it only covers the launches that went well. The four features that appeared in failed launches and were quietly removed do not make it into the analysis. What drives the next roadmap is shaped by It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy.
What it means and how it works
This bias stems from a desire for causal coherence and optimism: people seek a narrative where current pain is a necessary prelude to relief. When outcomes worsen, they fit the observation into the expected 'worse‑then‑better' pattern instead of considering that the initial intervention might be ineffective or harmful.
The 'It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better' fallacy occurs when a person observes that a situation is deteriorating after taking an action (or receiving advice) and interprets this deterioration as proof that the prescribed course will eventually succeed. Rather than reassessing the action, the individual endures the worsening state, expecting a future turnaround that may never come.
Why it matters
Relying on this fallacy can delay corrective actions, prolong suffering, and increase risks—especially in health, business, or safety contexts where timely reassessment is critical.
The verified research on this pattern supports the following:
- The It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better fallacy leads individuals to persist with ineffective actions because they interpret worsening conditions as a sign that eventual improvement is forthcoming.
- This fallacy can cause delays in seeking effective treatment or intervention, potentially worsening outcomes.
Common misunderstandings
Misunderstanding 1: The fallacy assumes that any worsening must be temporary and beneficial.
Misunderstanding 2: It is often confused with legitimate processes that genuinely involve an initial deterioration before improvement (e.g., certain medical treatments or exercise soreness).
Misunderstanding 3: Believing the fallacy applies universally leads to ignoring evidence that a chosen course is failing.
See It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy in everyday decisions
Pick a life context to see how this bias can show up outside the textbook.
The Prolonged Redesign
A team keeps tweaking a checkout flow, seeing each drop in completed purchases as a necessary dip before a breakthrough.
Scenario
Alex looks after the checkout flow at a small online shop that sells handmade soap. After the first version of the new layout goes live, completed purchases fall from 62% to 48%. The team calls this the expected 'worse before better' phase and keeps adding tweaks-like a new gift-wrap option and a one-click reorder button-even though usability tests show shoppers get confused and abandon their carts. Over the next two months they keep pushing forward, each change bringing the completion rate down a bit more, yet they stay convinced a turnaround is just around the corner.
Where The Bias Enters
The worsening metric is fitted into the story that current pain must precede improvement, so the team discounts the test data and continues the same course.
Decision Check
If the completion rate is still below 50% after the next two sprints, would we still treat the redesign as a worthwhile investment?
This pilot example is illustrative and review-gated. It is designed to explain the pattern, not to claim a documented public case.
Sources
- Niroula, Rishab. REV 2.0 Topic Catalog. Hello to Halo.
- Cialdini, Robert B. Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion. Harper Business, 2006.
- Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.
The next time this pattern surfaces, the move is not to fight it — it is to notice it. Naming It Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better Fallacy creates a moment of pause before the decision. That moment is usually enough.